In the simplest terms, the rationale behind drafting any player is hoping he out-produces everyone else available at that time. This is true whether you're choosing the first overall pick or the fourth pick in Round 9 or the last pick in the draft. Why else would you take a player?
The only reasonable answer to that question: Because you need to fill specific positions in your weekly lineup. But even when you're choosing based on roster needs, the same rationale applies: When you pick a player, you're hoping he out-produces everyone else available from that position at that time.
But that's something you already could have figured out. What you might not have thought through is how you feel about each position. How much will you stress running backs? Is this the year you're going to target receivers early? Or are you going to zag while the rest of your league zigs and lock down a tight end and a quarterback before anyone else? And can you rationalize to yourself the answers to these questions?
Look, Fantasy is supposed to be fun. This should be a fun thought exercise and not something that keeps you up at night. Besides, you need your beauty sleep. Read along and think about these strategies and how they align with what you think is best on Draft Day.
And don't forget to know exactly what the rules of your league are and how many players you can start. The strategies you'll map out in a 10-team league with one flex are a lot different than a 12-team Superflex with three receivers or a 14-team tiered-PPR with team RBs and four flex dyno-multipliers.
I just made that last one up, but it sounds fun!
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NFL offenses have evolved – teams are passing more, and wide receivers have benefitted. Over the past five years, the top 12 running backs based on total PPR points averaged 16.5 points per game. Wide receivers averaged 17.0. Running backs that finished 13th through 24th in total PPR points averaged 10.7 per game while receivers averaged 13.2.
That's a lot pointing toward wide receivers carrying plenty of value. Maybe even more than running backs.
If it wasn't for the consensus panicked rush for premium running backs, Fantasy managers would probably prioritize wide receivers first. Even if you start one more receiver than a running back, there just aren't enough running backs to satisfy every Fantasy manager. And there are plenty of receivers who are start-worthy. Look at the Tiers for yourself and you'll see upward of 30 names you'd be OK with having in your lineup.
Fantasy averages back that up: In each of the past three years, there have been at least 19 wide receivers (and as many as 24!) who averaged between 13 and 15.9 PPR points per game. By comparison, no more than 12 running backs per year averaged between 13 and 15.9 PPR points per game.
Those are important numbers since only nine running backs have exceeded 16 PPR points per game in each of the past three years and no more than 12 wide receivers have gone beyond 16 PPR points per game in two of the past three years. And yeah, getting a receiver between 13 and 16 PPR points per game is pretty good; seven receivers with at most a 15.9 PPR average finished in the top 12 of Fantasy points per game in a season, including two in 2021.
You should expect to find capable receivers through Tier 6 in PPR and Tier 7 in non-PPR, which means if you really wanted to, you could skimp on the position with your first few choices and then bombard your roster with wideouts from Tier 4 in PPR/Tier 5 in non-PPR. You probably won't love how that looks after your draft, but at least you'll have the confidence in knowing that receivers tend to be the easiest positions to fill on a weekly basis off waivers.
DAVE'S FAVORITE STRATEGY AT WR: Build a gameplan around running backs and tight ends, and let wide receivers fill the gaps whenever there isn't a player at another position you really believe in. The position is deep enough that there will always be an interesting receiver available until you get really late in the draft.
Wide receiver PPR tiers (updated 7/29)
C. Kupp
LAR
Cooper Kupp
LAR
|
J. Jefferson
MIN
Justin Jefferson
MIN
|
J. Chase
CIN
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN
|
S. Diggs
BUF
Stefon Diggs
BUF
|
D. Adams
LV
Davante Adams
LV
|
C. Lamb
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
DAL
|
M. Evans
TB
Mike Evans
TB
|
D. Samuel
SF
Deebo Samuel
SF
|
T. Hill
MIA
Tyreek Hill
MIA
|
K. Allen
LAC
Keenan Allen
LAC
|
A. Brown
PHI
A.J. Brown
PHI
|
M. Pittman
IND
Michael Pittman
IND
|
T. Higgins
CIN
Tee Higgins
CIN
|
D. Moore
CAR
D.J. Moore
CAR
|
B. Cooks
HOU
Brandin Cooks
HOU
|
C. Godwin
TB
Chris Godwin
TB
|
M. Brown
ARI
Marquise Brown
ARI
|
A. Robinson
LAR
Allen Robinson
LAR
|
J. Waddle
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
MIA
|
T. McLaurin
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WAS
|
C. Sutton
DEN
Courtland Sutton
DEN
|
M. Williams
LAC
Mike Williams
LAC
|
M. Thomas
NO
Michael Thomas
NO
|
D. Metcalf
SEA
DK Metcalf
SEA
|
G. Davis
BUF
Gabriel Davis
BUF
|
D. Johnson
PIT
Diontae Johnson
PIT
|
A. Thielen
MIN
Adam Thielen
MIN
|
D. Mooney
CHI
Darnell Mooney
CHI
|
J. Jeudy
DEN
Jerry Jeudy
DEN
|
D. London
ATL
Drake London
ATL
|
R. Bateman
BAL
Rashod Bateman
BAL
|
A. Lazard
GB
Allen Lazard
GB
|
T. Burks
TEN
Treylon Burks
TEN
|
A. Cooper
CLE
Amari Cooper
CLE
|
D. Smith
PHI
DeVonta Smith
PHI
|
D. Hopkins
ARI
DeAndre Hopkins
ARI
|
H. Renfrow
LV
Hunter Renfrow
LV
|
A. St. Brown
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET
|
R. Gage
TB
Russell Gage
TB
|
C. Kirk
JAC
Christian Kirk
JAC
|
C. Olave
NO
Chris Olave
NO
|
S. Moore
KC
Skyy Moore
KC
|
T. Lockett
SEA
Tyler Lockett
SEA
|
E. Moore
NYJ
Elijah Moore
NYJ
|
T. Patrick
DEN
Tim Patrick
DEN
|
C. Claypool
PIT
Chase Claypool
PIT
|
J. Jones
TB
Julio Jones
TB
|
M. Gallup
DAL
Michael Gallup
DAL
|
K. Toney
NYG
Kadarius Toney
NYG
|
R. Woods
TEN
Robert Woods
TEN
|
J. Dotson
WAS
Jahan Dotson
WAS
|
G. Wilson
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
NYJ
|
B. Aiyuk
SF
Brandon Aiyuk
SF
|
D. Chark
DET
D.J. Chark
DET
|
C. Watson
GB
Christian Watson
GB
|
T. Boyd
CIN
Tyler Boyd
CIN
|
R. Moore
ARI
Rondale Moore
ARI
|
D. Parker
NE
DeVante Parker
NE
|
K. Golladay
NYG
Kenny Golladay
NYG
|
J. Tolbert
DAL
Jalen Tolbert
DAL
|
J. Landry
NO
Jarvis Landry
NO
|
R. Cobb
GB
Randall Cobb
GB
|
Wide receiver Non-PPR tiers (updated 7/29)
C. Kupp
LAR
Cooper Kupp
LAR
|
J. Jefferson
MIN
Justin Jefferson
MIN
|
J. Chase
CIN
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN
|
S. Diggs
BUF
Stefon Diggs
BUF
|
D. Adams
LV
Davante Adams
LV
|
C. Lamb
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
DAL
|
M. Evans
TB
Mike Evans
TB
|
D. Samuel
SF
Deebo Samuel
SF
|
T. Hill
MIA
Tyreek Hill
MIA
|
A. Brown
PHI
A.J. Brown
PHI
|
M. Pittman
IND
Michael Pittman
IND
|
T. Higgins
CIN
Tee Higgins
CIN
|
K. Allen
LAC
Keenan Allen
LAC
|
D. Moore
CAR
D.J. Moore
CAR
|
B. Cooks
HOU
Brandin Cooks
HOU
|
M. Brown
ARI
Marquise Brown
ARI
|
C. Godwin
TB
Chris Godwin
TB
|
A. Robinson
LAR
Allen Robinson
LAR
|
T. McLaurin
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WAS
|
J. Waddle
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
MIA
|
C. Sutton
DEN
Courtland Sutton
DEN
|
M. Williams
LAC
Mike Williams
LAC
|
D. Metcalf
SEA
DK Metcalf
SEA
|
G. Davis
BUF
Gabriel Davis
BUF
|
M. Thomas
NO
Michael Thomas
NO
|
D. Mooney
CHI
Darnell Mooney
CHI
|
D. Johnson
PIT
Diontae Johnson
PIT
|
A. Thielen
MIN
Adam Thielen
MIN
|
D. London
ATL
Drake London
ATL
|
R. Bateman
BAL
Rashod Bateman
BAL
|
J. Jeudy
DEN
Jerry Jeudy
DEN
|
D. Smith
PHI
DeVonta Smith
PHI
|
A. Lazard
GB
Allen Lazard
GB
|
T. Burks
TEN
Treylon Burks
TEN
|
A. Cooper
CLE
Amari Cooper
CLE
|
D. Hopkins
ARI
DeAndre Hopkins
ARI
|
T. Lockett
SEA
Tyler Lockett
SEA
|
C. Kirk
JAC
Christian Kirk
JAC
|
R. Gage
TB
Russell Gage
TB
|
C. Olave
NO
Chris Olave
NO
|
S. Moore
KC
Skyy Moore
KC
|
E. Moore
NYJ
Elijah Moore
NYJ
|
H. Renfrow
LV
Hunter Renfrow
LV
|
A. St. Brown
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET
|
T. Patrick
DEN
Tim Patrick
DEN
|
C. Claypool
PIT
Chase Claypool
PIT
|
J. Jones
TB
Julio Jones
TB
|
K. Toney
NYG
Kadarius Toney
NYG
|
R. Woods
TEN
Robert Woods
TEN
|
M. Gallup
DAL
Michael Gallup
DAL
|
J. Dotson
WAS
Jahan Dotson
WAS
|
G. Wilson
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
NYJ
|
B. Aiyuk
SF
Brandon Aiyuk
SF
|
C. Watson
GB
Christian Watson
GB
|
D. Chark
DET
D.J. Chark
DET
|
R. Moore
ARI
Rondale Moore
ARI
|
J. Tolbert
DAL
Jalen Tolbert
DAL
|
D. Parker
NE
DeVante Parker
NE
|
K. Golladay
NYG
Kenny Golladay
NYG
|
R. Cobb
GB
Randall Cobb
GB
|
M. Hardman
KC
Mecole Hardman
KC
|
J. Landry
NO
Jarvis Landry
NO
|